The 2-0 Kansas City Chiefs took care of business at home, so now it’s time for Andy Reid’s squad to hit the road for Week 3 of NFL action.
Waiting for them are the Atlanta Falcons, who are ushering in a new era under head coach Raheem Morris and quarterback Kirk Cousins. The results have been mixed through two weeks, but a clutch victory over the Philadelphia Eagles has them riding high entering a high-profile battle.
With that said, there are some clear schematic advantages and disadvantages at play. Atlanta has yet to score a rushing touchdown this year, and the club’s -10.7 pass rate over expected (per nfelo) is surprising. The Falcons are 16th in EPA per pass and 23rd in EPA per rush, so they have yet to establish consistency with either option.
Another wrinkle to consider is Cousins’ performance versus different coverages last season as a member of the Minnesota Vikings. He averaged 0.28 EPA/play against Cover-1 but 0.00 EPA/play against Cover-4 (NFL Quarterback and Defensive Coverage Efficiency). That gives the Chiefs a double-edged sword to deal with, as Steve Spagnuolo is going to Cover-1 20% of the time but quarters coverage on 24% of his looks. The latter, which Cousins averaged just 6.76 yards per attempt against last season, could be key.
Last, but certainly not least, is personnel. Atlanta loves getting multiple tight ends on the field (12 personnel rate of 40% this year is third in football) and the uber-talented Kyle Pitts is in the slot at a 45.2% rate. Considering Kansas City’s struggles to slow down Isaiah Likely in Week 1 and Mike Gesicki in Week 2, this is hands-down the most important position-versus-unit matchup of the game.
On Wednesday, Patrick Mahomes complimented Raheem Morris’s scheme. Two games into the season, though, that side of the ball has yet to change things up too much. Atlanta ranks low in variability and man coverage rate so far, having the look of a more static defense early on. On the other hand, the shell Morris is sticking to just so happens to be one that could challenge Mahomes and company.
After Weeks 1 and 2, the Falcons’ Cover-3 preference is a staggering 45%. That ranks fourth among all teams right now. Last season, Mahomes averaged just 0.12 EPA per attempt against Cover-3 on the fourth-most tries in all of football. He also had the worst average depth of target (5.94 yards) versus those looks among qualified passers (50 or more attempts). That falls directly in line with how folks are attacking this year’s Atlanta defense, as opponents’ 5.91 aDOT is the third-lowest.
