Clayton Kershaw wrapped up spring training with a 0.00 ERA, while Madison Bumgarner left camp with three pins in the broken pinkie of his pitching hand. Ronald Acuna begins the season in the minors, while Scott Kingery has a spot on the Philadelphia Phillies’ roster and a guaranteed $24 million in his future. And while Jake Arrieta prepares for his first start in Philly, fellow Scott Boras client Greg Holland is still looking for work in the aftermath of a 41-save season.
A lot of things changed on the Major League Baseball landscape in recent weeks, but everyone is back at square one starting Thursday. The 2018 season begins with 15 openers, and even the alleged tankers and teams in noncompetitive mode have varying degrees of reason to be hopeful.
How will MLB’s big on- and off-field questions play out over the coming months? ESPN.com surveyed 43 general managers, assistant GMs, personnel directors and scouts in an attempt to gauge the industry pulse on eight topics that will drive the season narrative. The poll took place via email, and respondents received assurances of anonymity to best allow them to speak candidly. In cases where a half-point is given, the respondent split his vote between two clubs./cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/pmn/VQNA6WVW2REH5OKX2JGOHJATCU.jpg)
Even former commissioner Bud Selig, the king of “hope and faith,” might have a hard time selling parity this season. Bad or mediocre teams abound, and baseball could wind up in a similar position as last season, when the AL East competition between the Yankees and Red Sox was the only division race with a shred of drama in the waning days.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system forecasts a similar scenario this year, with Houston, Cleveland and the Dodgers rolling to double-digit victory margins, the Yankees and Nationals flirting with that, and the Cubs leading the way in the NL Central with 91 wins to the Cardinals’ 85.
Which team might not be a lock? Survey respondents think New York’s rotation could be vulnerable because of Masahiro Tanaka’s elbow, CC Sabathia’s age, Sonny Gray’s general health history and Jordan Montgomery’s youth. But the Yankees-related skepticism is more a nod to the Red Sox, who are coming off back-to-back 93-wins seasons and two straight division titles (although that didn’t do former manager John Farrell’s job security much good).
“Boston is a good second team, and it’s hard to imagine them not making a big deadline push if they are within shouting distance,” a scout said.
Similarly, the Cubs could be pushed by Milwaukee and St. Louis in the NL Central, and the Dodgers have all kinds of competition in an NL West that includes 2017 postseason participants Arizona and Colorado, a motivated San Francisco club and a San Diego team on the rise.
“The Dodgers have some potential cracks there with the starting pitching and the bullpen depth, and they have some pretty good teams breathing down their neck,” an AL personnel man said.
The answer to this question might hinge less on the performances of Machado and Donaldson than their teams in general. The Orioles were lumped in with MLB’s do-nothings until spring training arrived and executive vice president Dan Duquette added Andrew Cashner, Chris Tillman and Alex Cobb to the rotation. Buck Showalter and Adam Jones have injected a lot of pride in the Orioles’ clubhouse during their extended run together, and the Orioles’ history suggests they’re always reluctant sellers and not the easiest trade partner under Peter Angelos’ ownership regime.
Toronto’s rotation of Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada has the potential to keep the Jays afloat for a while in the AL East, but almost a third of respondents expect president of baseball operations Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins to shop Donaldson once reality sets in around midseason.
Can Donaldson stay healthy after missing 49 games with a calf injury last season? There were whispers of a recurrence in spring training, but Donaldson quickly dismissed it as an issue.
Machado has settled in nicely at shortstop this spring, and it will be interesting to see whether he’s willing to entertain a move back to third base to help facilitate a deadline deal if it comes to that.
“Both are incredible players that would help any lineup,” one survey respondent said. “But barring injury, it is hard to project a big market for a third baseman or a shortstop. As it stands today, every major contender is set at both positions and won’t be motivated to give up good prospects for a rental.”
Donaldson and Machado might not be the only power-hitting infield bats on the market in July. One survey participant predicts that the Kansas City Royals will also shop Mike Moustakas hard at the trade deadline.
